How is Polymarket structured?

At the end of October 2024, amid the high-profile U.S. presidential election, a story appeared in the crypto community that surprised even experienced traders. One market participant under the pseudonym Fish managed to earn around $250,000 — without betting on a specific candidate and without trying to predict the election outcome.

While most participants emotionally picked a side — who would win — Fish did something completely different. He worked with math and market inefficiencies.

What did he see?

Polymarket is not a bookmaker — it’s a prediction exchange. Each event has two outcomes:

Yes
No

The sum of the prices of these two options should always equal $1.
But in real life, due to panic, news shocks, and market delays, this rule is sometimes broken.

Imagine this situation:

“Yes” costs $0.60
“No” costs $0.39

Total = $0.99
But one of the outcomes must happen, and the payout will be $1.00.

👉 The difference is risk-free profit.

Fish wasn’t predicting the future. He bought both sides when the market made a pricing mistake. This strategy is called arbitrage.

Why this can’t be repeated manually — and how scalping works

Why can’t a regular person keep up?

These opportunities exist for fractions of a second.
By the time a person:

sees the price
understands what’s happening
clicks
confirms the trade

— algorithmic bots have already taken everything.

Bots connect directly to the exchange, react in tens of milliseconds, and instantly capture all profitable liquidity.

That’s why Fish’s earnings weren’t luck — they were a technological edge.

What is scalping in simple terms?

Scalping is not betting on an event — it’s profiting from small price differences.

Example:

Buy “Yes” at $0.49
Sell at $0.51

Profit = 2 cents
These trades are repeated dozens or hundreds of times.

On Polymarket this works better than on traditional financial markets because:

liquidity is lower
price spreads are wider
the exchange pays rewards for placing orders

Traders combine scalping with liquidity rewards, which creates steady income.

Summary

Arbitrage = finding market pricing errors. Safe, but mostly accessible only to bots.
Scalping = earning on price differences. Possible, but risky.
Fish’s success = not luck, but a fully automated 24/7 process.

Practical advice for regular users

If you want to make money on Polymarket without programming:

don’t try to compete with bots
don’t day trade
make medium-term positions on topics you deeply understand
use market panic, when prices drop due to questionable news

Markets always reward patience and rational thinking.